Drawing for the Gutshot
At the bigger of the local home games I go to, it is popular among a certain breed of player (from here forward known as, the donk) to continue to draw at a gutshot straight, pretty much regardless of the price. I’ve seen several pots where a big hand got decimated by these players hitting their 4 outer on the river and getting paid off because you can’t see it coming, but more often you see these players bust night after night after night.
The logic these players always offer when people say, “Really? A gutshot?” is: “Well, I only needed one card to come out there.” Which is a pretty ridiculous way to look at it, obviously, from a math standpoint. Betting and raising with that kind of hand is much different than the cold calling these players make, but either way, it’s slim odds.
Though there are instances where drawing to a gutshot might pay off. It’s a rare spot, but several factors weigh in:
(1) There are several players in the pot and you are in position: an early player bets a moderate amount in regards to the pot, three other players call on the flop. You’re probably up against at least 1 made hand, if not another that would call later if you hit. But you probably don’t want to be acting with others behind you.
(2) Does your draw make the nuts? If so, might it simultaneously make two pair for a player with suited connectors?
(3) Are the players in the pot the sort that will doubt or not even see the gut shot, or are they often cautious on later streets regardless of their hand?
There have been several times I’ve made this sort of play and ended up getting one or more players who thought they could slow play their big hand to give me all their chips.
Obviously it’s not worth it to overcommit in this kind of spot, but in the right conditions, if you hit, it can pay big. Plus also, imagine your table image after making such a “donkey” call.
Tags: drawing-for-the-straight, gutshot-straight-draw, pot-oddsRelated Stories
POSTED IN: poker blog
1 opinion for Drawing for the Gutshot
Jereme
Nov 18, 2007 at 4:15 am
I think there is another factor missing here: Stakes. People are apt to make this type of play in a low stakes game. You will always here them say “Well it’s only a X dollar game, so I chased” when they hit.
The odds of this happening in a medium to high stakes game is almost null.
Play needs to be adjusted for the game stakes (in my opinion). You cannot pull of the same type of play in a low stakes game as you could in a high stakes game.
and be aware of what is considered “low stakes”. Playing a $10,000 sit n go against 8 other players who make 10 figures a year is not high stakes just as playing a $40 sit n go against 8 players who work at Wendy’s is not low.
I see quite a few of people make this mistake.
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