from Sklansky’s Hold Em for Advanced Players
Here’s a good passage from Sklansky’s Hold Em for Advanced Players, on a topic I see misplayed rather a lot: betting when you’re heads up on the river:
“”When is it the best strategy to check and call? It is when your opponent will bet with any of the hands that he will call with, plus with some hands that are worse (usually bluffs). An example of this is against an aggressive opponent who has been just calling after two suited cards appeared on the flop, and you are betting top pair on the flop and fourth street. This opponent may have either middle pair, or a flush draw. (Your opponent may not have raised with the flush draw because he figured that you were likely to reraise if you did indeed have a legitimate hand.) If your opponent is on a flush draw and the flush card does not get there, he might attempt to bluff if you check. In addition, an aggressive player often will bet middle pair for value. Consequently, in this situation, a check is frequently correct regardless of the last card.
“A check in this spot also will eliminate the possibility of a raise. This is especially beneficial when your opponent has middle pair and the last card, which appears to be a blank, may have given him two pair. When this is the case, he often will raise if you bet, especially if the board is not too threatening.
“However, against an opponent who will call your bet more often than he will bet himself, you should bet. This is correct even if you are an underdog when he calls, as long as you were going to call his bet anyway, or when folding would be a close decision if you check and he bets.
“Suppose you have 10/9 off. The board is 10 10 Q 4 5 with three spades. Notice that when you bet, you could lose to a ten with a better kicker, a flush, or even a full house. However, by betting, you will cause some timid players to call with a queen or an overpair, which they probably would not have bet. So it is better to bet here, even you think you are a slight underdog if you are called, rather than to check and call as an even bigger underdog.”
I think Sklansky is really right here in that too many people miss bets on the river by scaredly betting an aggressive player with a weak hand. Conversely, people critically overvalue making trips on the flop and calling down against tight players when the board clearly beats them.
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